[1]熊俊楠,曹依帆,程维明*,等.福建省山洪灾害危险性评价[J].山地学报,2019,(04):538-550.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000446]
 XIONG Junnan,CAO Yifan,CHENG Weiming*,et al.Risk Assessment of Mountain Torrent Disasters in Fujian Province, China[J].Mountain Research,2019,(04):538-550.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000446]
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福建省山洪灾害危险性评价()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2019年04期
页码:
538-550
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2019-07-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk Assessment of Mountain Torrent Disasters in Fujian Province, China
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2019)4-538-13
作者:
熊俊楠12曹依帆1程维明2*郭 良34杨莹辉1
1.西南石油大学 土木工程与建筑学院,成都 610500; 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101; 3.中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038; 4.水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京 100038;
Author(s):
XIONG Junnan12CAO Yifan1CHENG Weiming2*GUO Liang34YANG Yinghui1
1.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic and Natural Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Beijing 100038, China; 4. Research Center on Flood & Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China;
关键词:
山洪灾害 危险性评价 确定性系数模型 逻辑回归模型 福建省
分类号:
P954; X43~A
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000446
摘要:
福建省山洪灾害频发,造成的损失十分严重,开展山洪灾害危险性评价,对于防灾减灾具有重要意义。本文结合福建省山洪灾害的时空分布特征,从致灾因子和孕灾环境出发,选取多年年均降雨量、坡度、NDVI、土壤类型、土地利用类型等10类影响因子。利用CF模型和Logistic回归模型确定各因子与其分类级别的权重,应用皮尔逊相关系数法对因子间独立性进行检验。并利用历史山洪点与ROC曲线对评价结果进行验证。研究结果表明:(1)100年一遇最大24 h降雨量、土地利用类型及地形起伏度是影响福建省山洪灾害的三个主要因素;(2)极低危险区、低危险区、中危险区、高危险区、极高危险区占全省总面积的比例分别为 63.1%、 14.2%、 4.5%、 5.9%、 12.3%;(3)福建省东部、南部、东南部的沿海地区以及北部、西部的个别低山地区处于高危险或极高危险区;(4)在仅占研究区面积 12.3%的“极高危险区”的较小范围内,实际发生山洪点数占山洪点总数的比例高达 65.8%,训练样本和验证样本的ROC曲线下面积AUC值也分别达到 0.876和 0.891,两种方式都说明山洪危险性评价结果较好。可为福建省山洪灾害防治提供科学依据和支持。

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2019-02-19; 改回日期(Accepted date): 2019-06-26
基金项目(Foundation item):中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20030302); 水科院全国山洪灾害调查评价项目(SHZH-IWHR-57); 数字福建自然灾害监测大数据研究所开放课题(NDMBD2018003); 西南石油大学科技创新团队项目(2017CXTD09); 中国地质调查项目(DD20190637)。[Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20030302); National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower(SHZH-IWHR-57); Open Fund of Big Data Institute of Digital Natural Disaster Monitoring in Fujian(NDMBD2018003); Innovation Team Projects of Southwest Petroleum University Of Science and Technology(2017CXTD09); China Geological Survey Project(DD20190637)]
作者简介(Biography):熊俊楠(1981-),男,四川南充人,在站博士后,副教授,主要从事地理信息系统与灾害风险分析方面的研究。[XIONG Junnan(1981-), male, born in Nanchong, Sichuan province, postdoctoral, associate professor, mainly engaged in the research on GIS and disaster risk analysis] E-mail: neu_xjn@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-07-30