[1]熊俊楠,曹依帆,程维明*,等.福建省山洪灾害危险性评价[J].山地学报,2019,(04):538-550.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000446]
　XIONG Junnan,CAO Yifan,CHENG Weiming*,et al.Risk Assessment of Mountain Torrent Disasters in Fujian Province, China[J].Mountain Research,2019,(04):538-550.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000446]
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福建省山洪灾害危险性评价()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2019年04期
页码:
538-550
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2019-07-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk Assessment of Mountain Torrent Disasters in Fujian Province, China
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2019)4-538-13
作者:
熊俊楠1; 2; 曹依帆1; 程维明2*; 郭 良3; 4; 杨莹辉1
1.西南石油大学 土木工程与建筑学院,成都 610500; 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室,北京 100101; 3.中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038; 4.水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京 100038;
Author(s):
XIONG Junnan1; 2; CAO Yifan1; CHENG Weiming2*; GUO Liang3; 4; YANG Yinghui1
1.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic and Natural Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 3.China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower, Beijing 100038, China; 4. Research Center on Flood & Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100038, China;
关键词:
山洪灾害;  危险性评价;  确定性系数模型;  逻辑回归模型;  福建省
Keywords:
mountain torrent disaster;  risk assessment;  certainty factor model;  logistic regression model;  Fujian Province
分类号:
P954; X43~A
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000446
摘要:
福建省山洪灾害频发,造成的损失十分严重,开展山洪灾害危险性评价,对于防灾减灾具有重要意义。本文结合福建省山洪灾害的时空分布特征,从致灾因子和孕灾环境出发,选取多年年均降雨量、坡度、NDVI、土壤类型、土地利用类型等10类影响因子。利用CF模型和Logistic回归模型确定各因子与其分类级别的权重,应用皮尔逊相关系数法对因子间独立性进行检验。并利用历史山洪点与ROC曲线对评价结果进行验证。研究结果表明:(1)100年一遇最大24 h降雨量、土地利用类型及地形起伏度是影响福建省山洪灾害的三个主要因素;(2)极低危险区、低危险区、中危险区、高危险区、极高危险区占全省总面积的比例分别为 63.1%、 14.2%、 4.5%、 5.9%、 12.3%;(3)福建省东部、南部、东南部的沿海地区以及北部、西部的个别低山地区处于高危险或极高危险区;(4)在仅占研究区面积 12.3%的“极高危险区”的较小范围内,实际发生山洪点数占山洪点总数的比例高达 65.8%,训练样本和验证样本的ROC曲线下面积AUC值也分别达到 0.876和 0.891,两种方式都说明山洪危险性评价结果较好。可为福建省山洪灾害防治提供科学依据和支持。
Abstract:
Fujian Province is prone to mountain torrent disaster, and the losses caused by mountain torrents is very serious in recent year. Assessment on the risk of mountain torrent disaster has great significance for disaster prevention and reduction. Based on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of mountain torrent disasters in Fujian Province, in this research it selected 10 kinds of influencing factors such as annual average rainfall, slope, NDVI, soil type and land use type to construct risk model from the perspective of disaster-causing factors as well as disaster-prone environment. The CF model and Logistic regression model were used to determine the weight of each factor and its classification level, and Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to test the independency between factors. Results were verified by historical flash flood points and ROC curves. The results found that:(1)The maximum 24-hour 100-year recurrence rainfall, land use types and topographic relief were the three main factors governing flash floods in Fujian Province;(2)The proportion of extremely low risk area, low risk area, medium risk area, high risk area and extremely high risk area in the total area of the province was 63.1%, 14.2%, 4.5%, 5.9% and 12.3% respectively;(3)The coastal areas in the east, south and southeast of Fujian Province and some low mountain areas in the north and west were at high or extremely high risk;(4)Within the small range of “extremely high risk area” which only accounted for 12.3% of the research area, the proportion of actual flood occurrences to the total number of mountain torrents was as high as 65.8%, and the AUC values of the area under ROC curve of training samples and verification samples also reached 0.876 and 0.891, respectively, which suggested the risk assessment result quite acceptable. Our research would provide a scientific basis and support for mountain flood prevention in Fujian Province.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2019-02-19; 改回日期(Accepted date): 2019-06-26
基金项目(Foundation item):中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20030302); 水科院全国山洪灾害调查评价项目(SHZH-IWHR-57); 数字福建自然灾害监测大数据研究所开放课题(NDMBD2018003); 西南石油大学科技创新团队项目(2017CXTD09); 中国地质调查项目(DD20190637)。[Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20030302); National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower(SHZH-IWHR-57); Open Fund of Big Data Institute of Digital Natural Disaster Monitoring in Fujian(NDMBD2018003); Innovation Team Projects of Southwest Petroleum University Of Science and Technology(2017CXTD09); China Geological Survey Project(DD20190637)]
作者简介(Biography):熊俊楠(1981-),男,四川南充人,在站博士后,副教授,主要从事地理信息系统与灾害风险分析方面的研究。[XIONG Junnan(1981-), male, born in Nanchong, Sichuan province, postdoctoral, associate professor, mainly engaged in the research on GIS and disaster risk analysis] E-mail: neu_xjn@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-07-30