[1]谭红梅,贺中华*,陈莉会,等.贵州省极端降雨特征及其影响因子[J].山地学报,2023,(5):748-758.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000784]
　TAN Hongmei,HE Zhonghua,*,et al.Characteristics of Extreme Rainfall and Its Influencing Factors in Guizhou Province, China[J].Mountain Research,2023,(5):748-758.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000784]
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贵州省极端降雨特征及其影响因子
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2023年第5期
页码:
748-758
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2023-09-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Characteristics of Extreme Rainfall and Its Influencing Factors in Guizhou Province, China
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2023)5-748-11
作者:
谭红梅1; 贺中华1; 2*; 陈莉会1; 冯椰林1; 顾小林3
(1.贵州师范大学 地理与环境科学学院,贵阳 550001; 2.贵州省山地资源与环境遥感应用重点实验室,贵阳 550001; 3.贵州省水文水资源局, 贵阳 550002)
Author(s):
TAN Hongmei1;  HE Zhonghua1;  2*;  CHEN Lihui1;  FENG Yelin1;  GU Xiaolin3
(1.School of Geography and Environmental Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang 550001, China; 2.Guizhou Mountain Resources and Environmental Remote Sensing Application Laboratory, Guiyang 550001, China; 3. Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Guizhou Province, Guiyang 550002, China)
关键词:
极端降雨;  概率分布函数;  随机森林算法;  地理探测器;  贵州省
Keywords:
extreme rainfall;  probability distribution function;  random forest algorithm;  geodetector;  Guizhou province
分类号:
P426.6
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000784
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
不同地区在下垫面结构、气候等方面存在区域异质性,极端降雨表现出不同演变趋势和独特的空间分布格局。贵州喀斯特地貌类型复杂,影响降雨空间再分配,极端降雨频发,地质灾害严重。针对贵州省极端气候的研究,大多关注其时空特征与模式数据预估,缺乏对其重现期特征及不同尺度影响因子的分析。本文基于贵州省31个站点1990—2020年逐日降雨数据计算极端降雨,采用8种分布函数对其拟合并选出各站点的最优分布函数,分析贵州省极端降雨重现期特征,探讨其不同尺度影响因子。结果表明:(1)近31年来贵州省极端降雨在时间上呈不显著增加趋势,空间上呈“南高北低、东高西低”的分布格局。(2)Weibull分布函数对贵州省大部分站点的极端降雨拟合效果最佳; 极端降雨的估计值随重现期增加而增大,在不同重现期均呈南高北低的分布格局,且南北差异随重现期增加而逐渐减弱。(3)大尺度影响因子中厄尔尼诺对极端降雨的影响最大; 局地尺度因子中温度、高程、二氧化碳为极端降雨的主要影响因子。研究结果可为贵州省防洪减灾提供科学指导。
Abstract:
Different geographical zones have regional heterogeneity in underlying earth surface structure and microclimate, which result in different trends and unique spatial pattern of extreme rainfalls in these zones. In Guizhou province of China, there are complex karst landforms, which lead to spatial redistribution of rainfall, frequent extreme rainfall, and geohazard occurrences. Research on extreme climate in Guizhou mostly paid attention to its spatio-temporal characteristics and modeling, but lacked of analysis on its recurrence interval and influencing factors on different scales.
This study investigated the characteristics of extreme rainfall recurrence period in Guizhou province and discussed influence factors on different scales. Daily rainfall data from 1990 to 2020 at 31 meteorological observation stations throughout the province were collected to calculate extreme precipitation, followed by 8 distribution functions to be selected for the determination of an optimal distribution function of each site.
This research had the following results.(1)In the past 31 years, there has been no significant increase in extreme rainfall in Guizhou province, with a spatial pattern of “high in the south and low in the north, high in the east and low in the west”.(2)The Weibull distribution function was the best fit for extreme rainfall at most stations; the estimation of extreme rainfall increased with the increase of recurrence period; the estimated values in each recurrence period showed a distribution pattern of “high in the south and low in the north”; the difference between the north and the south gradually weakened with the increase of recurrence period.(3)Among the large-scale influencing factors, El Nino had the greatest impact on extreme rainfall; among the local-scale influencing factors, temperature, elevation, and carbon dioxide were the main factors regulating extreme rainfalls.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date): 2023-06-20; 改回日期(Accepted date):2023-10-11
基金项目(Foundation item): 贵州省水利厅自然科学基金(KT202237); 国家自然科学基金(u1612441,41471032)。[National Natural Science Foundation of Guizhou Provincial Water Resources Bureau(KT202237); National Natural Science Foundation of China(u1612441, 41471032)]
作者简介(Biography): 谭红梅(2000-),女,贵州遵义人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:喀斯特水文水资源与遥感。[TAN Hongmei(2000-), female, born in Zunyi, Guizhou province, M.Sc. candidate, research on karst hydrology and water resources and remote sensing] E-mail: ketan_biu@163.com
*通讯作者(Corresponding author): 贺中华(1976-),男,博士,教授,主要研究方向:喀斯特水文水资源与遥感。[HE Zhonghua, male, Ph.D., professor, research on karst hydrology and water resources and remote sensing] E-mail: hezhonghua7621@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-09-30