[1]闫聪聪,陈兴伟*,郭 伟,等.SWAT模型时变和不变参数法模拟的土地利用变化径流效应比较[J].山地学报,2023,(1):144-154.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000737]
　YAN Congcong,CHEN Xingwei,*,et al.Comparison of Runoff Effects Incurred by Land Use Changes Based on Time-Varying Method and Invariant Parameter Methods of SWAT[J].Mountain Research,2023,(1):144-154.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000737]
点击复制

SWAT模型时变和不变参数法模拟的土地利用变化径流效应比较
分享到：

《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2023年第1期
页码:
144-154
栏目:
山地技术
出版日期:
2023-01-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Comparison of Runoff Effects Incurred by Land Use Changes Based on Time-Varying Method and Invariant Parameter Methods of SWAT
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2023)1-144-11
作者:
闫聪聪1; 陈兴伟1; 2; 3*; 郭 伟1; 陈 莹1; 2; 刘梅冰1; 2
(1.福建师范大学 地理科学学院,福州 350007; 2.福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心,福州 350007; 3.湿润亚热带山地生态国家重点实验室培育基地,福州 350007)
Author(s):
YAN Congcong1;  CHEN Xingwei1;  2;  3*;  GUO Wei1; CHEN Ying1; 2;  LIU Meibing1; 2
(1. School of Geographical Sciences Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China; 2. Fujian Province Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Assessing Terrestrial Disasters, Fuzhou 350007, China; 3. State Key Laboratory Breeding Base of Humid Subtropical Mountain Ecology, Fuzhou 350007, China)
关键词:
土地利用变化;  径流;  SWAT模型;  时变参数;  不变参数
Keywords:
land use change;  runoff;  SWAT model;  time-varying parameter;  invariant parameter
分类号:
P933
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000737
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
基于SWAT模型的时变参数和不变参数法可以用来模拟土地利用变化引起的径流效应。这两种方法评估环境水文效应的差异性仍缺乏定量分析。本文以东南沿海山美水库流域为例,在参数敏感性分析基础上,采用自动率定方法,分别构建1995年、2015年土地利用的SWAT模型,并运用时变参数和不变参数法对土地利用变化径流效应进行模拟。结果表明:(1)两期土地利用模型率定的参数集都能很好地模拟流域年、月和日尺度径流过程; 纳什效率系数分别大于0.83、0.90和0.66。(2)土地利用变化基本不影响径流模拟参数的敏感性,但对参数取值影响较大; 参数取值变化与土地利用变化方式密切相关。(3)与时变参数法相比,不变参数法低估了土地利用变化对年、丰水径流的影响,高估了对枯水径流的影响,时变参数法模拟结果更为合理。如时变参数法模拟的年径流平均增加1.22%,不变参数法为0.23%; 时变参数法年最小1 d径流平均减小2.72%,不变参数法为5.07%。研究成果改进了SWAT模型的时变参数法,进一步完善了应用SWAT模型评估土地利用变化对径流影响的模拟方法,可为流域水资源管理提供依据。
Abstract:
Both the time-varying parameter method and the invariant parameter method of SWAT model have wide applicability in hydrology to evaluating the effects of runoff incurred by land use changes due to engineered activities over a catchment; however, there was a lack of careful examination of the two methods for the differences in simulating environ-hydrological consequences. In this study, it conducted a case study of the Shanmei Reservoir basin in the southeast coast of China. Two SWAT models of land use of 1995 and 2015 were constructed by separately. Based on sensitivity analysis of parameters and automatic calibration method, it obtained two optimal parameter sets for the two models to runoff simulation. The effects of land use change on runoff were then simulated with the invariant and time-varying parameter methods respectively.Results are as follows:(1)The model with the calibrated optimal parameter sets well simulated the annual, monthly and daily scale runoff processes in the Shanmei Reservoir basin under two-phase land use conditions. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients were bigger than 0.83, 0.90 and 0.66 for annual, monthly and daily runoff respectively.(2)Land use change had little effect on the sensitivity of model parameters. The 10 most sensitive parameters were the same for the two land use conditions; just differed slightly in the ranking of the sensitivities, however, the parameter values varied greatly for the two land use conditions. The variation of model parameters was closely related to the way of land use change.(3)There were obvious differences in the simulation of the effects of land use changes on runoff between the time-varying parameter method and the invariable parameter method. Under the same meteorological conditions, the invariant parameter method underestimated the effect of land use change on annual and wet season runoff and overestimated the effect in dry season. For example, the average increase in annual runoff was 1.22% for the time-varying parameter method and 0.23% for the invariant parameter method; the average decrease in annual minimum 1 d flow was 2.72% for the time-varying parameter method and 5.07% for the invariant parameter method. The simulation result with time-varying parameter method is more reasonable and it suggests the modelling of the impact of land use change on runoff using SWAT should consider the change of model parameters with the change of land use. The research improves the simulation method on the impact of land use change on runoff using SWAT model and provides a reference for water resource management.

参考文献/References:

[1] SHARMA P J, PATEL P L, JOTHIPRAKASH V. Impact of rainfall variability and anthropogenic activities on streamflow changes and water stress conditions across Tapi Basin in India [J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 687: 885-897. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.097
[2] 赵琳林, 孙美平, 孙皓, 等. 天山北坡奎屯河流域径流模拟及对气候变化的敏感性分析[J]. 山地学报, 2018, 36(5): 722-730. [ZHAO Linlin, SUN Meiping, SUN Hao, et al. Discharge simulation and sensitivity to climate change of the Kuytun River Basin on the north slope of Tianshan Mountains, China [J]. Mountain Research, 2018, 36(5): 722-730] DOI: 10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000368
[3] XUE Lianqing, YANG Fan, YANG Changbing, et al. Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China [J]. Scientific Reports, 2017, 7(1): 8254. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-09215-z
[4] 陆文, 唐家良, 章熙锋, 等. 山地流域水文模拟研究进展与展望[J]. 山地学报, 2020, 38(1): 50-61. [LU Wen, TANG Jialiang, ZHANG Xifeng, et al. Hydrological simulation in mountainous region: Present state and perspectives [J]. Mountain Research, 2020, 38(1):50-61] DOI: 10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000490
[5] MEKONNEN D F, DUAN Zheng, RIENTJES T, et al. Analysis of combined and isolated effects of land-use and land-cover changes and climate change on the upper Blue Nile River basin's streamflow [J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2018, 22(12): 6187-6207. DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-6187-2018
[6] 胡巍巍, 郑明国. 1970年以来赣江流域水沙变化及归因分析[J]. 山地学报, 2021, 39(6): 821-829. [HU Weiwei, ZHENG Mingguo. Water and sediment changes in the Ganjiang River basin of China since 1970 and its attribution analysis [J]. Mountain Research, 2021, 39(6): 821-829] DOI: 10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000641
[7] 毛熙彦, 蒙吉军. 土地利用变化的水文效应研究进展[J]. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2013, 49(5): 928-936. [MAO Xiyan, MENG Jijun. Impacts of land use changes on water resources:A literature review [J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2013, 49(5): 928-936] DOI: 10.13209/j.0479-8023.2013.124
[8] 史晓亮, 杨志勇, 严登华, 等. 滦河流域土地利用/覆被变化的水文响应[J]. 水科学进展, 2014, 25(1): 21-27. [SHI Xiaoliang, YANG Zhiyong, YAN Denghua, et al. On hydrological response to land-use /cover change in Luanhe River basin [J]. Advances in Water Science, 2014, 25(1): 21-27] DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2014.01.005
[9] 章燕喃. 密云水库流域近三十年径流变化及归因分析[D]. 北京: 清华大学, 2014: 2-4. [ZHANG Yannan. Attribution analysis on the change of runoff in the upstream of Miyun Reservoir during last 30 years [D]. Beijing: Tsinghua University, 2014: 2-4] DOI: 10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000490
[10] 唐华俊, 吴文斌, 杨鹏, 等. 土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)模型研究进展[J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64(4): 456-468. [TANG Huajun, WU Wenbin, YANG Peng, et al. Recent progresses of Land Use and Land Cover Change(LUCC)models [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(4): 456-468] DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2009.04.008
[11] 王林, 陈兴伟. 退化山地生态系统植被恢复水文效应的SWAT模拟[J]. 山地学报, 2008, 26(1): 71-75. [WANG Lin, CHEN Xingwei. Simulation of hydrological effects on vegetation restoration of degraded mountain ecosystem with SWAT model [J]. Mountain Research, 2008, 26(1): 71-75] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-2786.2008.01.012
[12] 肖森元, 杨广, 何新林, 等. 玛纳斯河流域MIKE SHE水文模型率定[J]. 山地学报, 2021, 39(1): 1-9. [XIAO Senyuan, YANG Guang, HE Xinlin, et al. Calibration of hydrological modelling by MIKE SHE for the Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China [J]. Mountain Research, 2021, 39(1): 1-9] DOI: 10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000571
[13] LIN Bingqing, CHEN Xingwei, YAO Huaxia, et al. Analyses of landuse change impacts on catchment runoff using different time indicators based on SWAT model [J]. Ecological Indicators, 2015, 58: 55-63. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.05.031
[14] MCGINN A J, WAGNER P D, HTIKE H, et al. Twenty years of change: Land and water resources in the Chindwin catchment, Myanmar between 1999 and 2019 [J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2021, 798(1): 148766. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148766
[15] SAMAL D R, GEDAM S. Assessing the impacts of land use and land cover change on water resources in the Upper Bhima river basin, India [J]. Environmental Challenges, 2021, 5: 100251. DOI: 10.1016/j.envc.2021.100251
[16] 王博威, 李建柱, 冯平. 土地利用变化对潘家口水库控制流域径流影响[J]. 水利学报, 2018, 49(3): 379-386. [WANG Bowei, LI Jianzhu, FENG Ping. Impacts of land use change on runoff in Panjiakou Reservoir watershed [J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2018, 49(3): 379-386] DOI: 10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20170962
[17] AGHSAEI H, DINAN N M, MORIDI A, et al. Effects of dynamic land use/land cover change on water resources and sediment yield in the Anzali wetland catchment, Gilan, Iran [J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 712: 136449. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.136449
[18] LI Yunyun, CHANG Jianxia, LUO Lifeng, et al. Spatiotemporal impacts of land use land cover changes on hydrology from the mechanism perspective using SWAT model with time-varying parameters [J]. Hydrology Research, 2019, 50(1/2): 244-261. DOI: 10.2166/nh.2018.006
[19] TEKLAY A, DILE Y T, SETEGN S G, et al. Evaluation of static and dynamic land use data for watershed hydrologic process simulation: A case study in Gummara watershed, Ethiopia [J]. Catena, 2019, 172: 65-75. DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2018.08.013
[20] 郭伟, 陈兴伟, 林炳青. SWAT模型参数对土地利用变化的响应及其对不同时间尺度径流模拟的影响[J]. 生态学报, 2021, 41(16): 6373-6383. [GUO Wei, CHEN Xingwei, LIN Bingqing. Response of SWAT model parameters to land use change and its effects on the simulation of runoff with different time scales [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2021, 41(16): 6373-6383] DOI: 10.5846/stxb202007141834
[21] 李苏. 气候变化和人类活动对流域径流的影响研究[D]. 邯郸: 河北工程大学, 2021: 96-98. [LI Su. Study on the impact of climate change and human activities on Watershed Runoff [D]. Handan: Hebei University of Engineering, 2021: 96-98] DOI: 10.27104/d.cnki.ghbjy.2021.000405
[22] MISHRA S K, PANDEY A, SINGH V P. Special issue on Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN)methodology [J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2012, 17(11): 1157-1157. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000694
[23] Natural Resources Conservation Service, United States Department of Agriculture. National engineering handbook: Part 630 hydrology [M]. Washington: Government Printing Office, 2004: 9.1-9.14.
[24] Natural Resources Conservation Service, United States Department of Agriculture. National engineering handbook: Part 630 hydrology [M]. Washington: Government Printing Office, 2009: 7.1-7.15.
[25] 李润奎, 朱阿兴, 陈腊娇, 等. SCS-CN模型中土壤参数的作用机制研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(10): 1778-1787. [LI Runkui, ZHU Axing, CHEN Lajiao, et al. Effects of soil parameters in SCS-CN runoff model [J]. Journal of Natural Resource, 2013, 28(10): 1778-1787] DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.10.012
[26] 杨柳. 泉州山美水库集水区土地利用与覆被变化的水文响应[D]. 福州: 福建师范大学, 2013: 14-16. [YANG Liu. Simulation of the hydrologic response to land-use and land-cover change in Shanmei reservoir catchment of Quanzhou [D]. Fuzhou: Fujian Normal University, 2013: 14-16]
[27] 吴思佳, 林金煌, 陈文惠, 等. 2000年以来4个时期闽三角城市群中的湿地格局及变化[J]. 湿地科学, 2018, 16(6): 717-722. [WU Sijia, LIN Jinhuang, CHEN Wenhui, et al. Patterns and changes of wetlands in the urban agglomeration of Min Delta in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 [J]. Wetland Science, 2018, 16(6): 717-722] DOI: 10.13248/j.cnki.wetlandsci.2018.06.004
[28] VAN GRIENSVEN A, MEIXNER T, GRUNWALD S, et al. A global sensitivity analysis tool for the parameters of multi-variable catchment models [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2006, 324(1-4): 10-23. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.09.008
[29] MORIASI D N, ARNOLD J G, VAN LIEW M W, et al. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations [J]. Transactions of the ASABE, 2007, 50(3): 855-900. DOI: 10.13031/2013.23153
[30] GEBREMICAEL T G, MOHAMED Y A, BETRIE G D, et al. Trend analysis of runoff and sediment fluxes in the Upper Blue Nile basin: A combined analysis of statistical tests, physically-based models and landuse maps [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2013, 482: 57-68. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.023
[31] 林炳青, 陈莹, 陈兴伟. SWAT模型水文过程参数区域差异研究[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013, 28(11): 1988-1999. [LIN Bingqing, CHEN Ying, CHEN Xingwei. A study on regional difference of hydrological parameters of SWAT model [J]. Journal of Natural Resource, 2013, 28(11): 1988-1999] DOI: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.11.015
[32] 王政友. 降水入渗补给地下水滞后时间分析探讨[J]. 水文, 2011, 31(2): 42-45. [WANG Zhengyou. Discussion on lag time of rainfall penetration recharge to groundwater [J]. Hydrology, 2011, 31(2): 42-45] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2011.02.010
[33] 陈利群, 刘昌明, 李发东. 基流研究综述[J]. 地理科学进展, 2006, 25(1): 1-15. [CHEN Liqun, LIU Changming, LI Fadong. Reviews on base flow researches [J]. Progress in Geography, 2006, 25(1): 1-15] DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-6301.2006.01.001
[34] 梁向锋, 赵世伟, 张扬, 等. 子午岭植被恢复对土壤饱和导水率的影响[J]. 生态学报, 2009, 29(2): 636-642. [LIANG Xiangfeng, ZHAO Shiwei, ZHANG Yang, et al. Effects of vegetation rehabilitation on soil saturated hydraulic conductivity in Ziwuling forest area [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2009, 29(2): 636-642] DOI: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2009.02.011
[35] 林峰, 陈兴伟, 姚文艺, 等. 基于SWAT模型的森林分布不连续流域水源涵养量多时间尺度分析[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(5): 1065-1078. [LIN Feng, CHEN Xingwei, YAO Wenyi, et al. Multi-time scale analysis of water conservation in a discontinuous forest watershed based on SWAT model [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(5): 1065-1078] DOI: 10.11821/dlxb202005013
[36] 吕英烁, 王瑶函, 郑曦. 基于SWAT模型的北京平原区森林景观格局对雨洪减缓的影响研究[J]. 生态学报, 2021, 41(10): 4036-4051. [LYU Yingshuo, WANG Yaohan, ZHENG Xi. Influence of forest landscape pattern on flood mitigation in Beijing Plain based on SWAT model [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2021, 41(10): 4036-4051] DOI: 10.5846/stxb202005281379

相似文献/References:

[1]范海生,陈秀万,李京,等.南方典型山区土地利用变化GPS野外测量方法——以攀枝花仁和区为例[J].山地学报,2000,(04):353.
[2]汉斯-鲁道夫·博克,李勇,赵永涛,等.长江上游土地利用变化与冲沟发生和演变(英文)[J].山地学报,2001,(02):97.
[3]朱波,彭奎,高美荣,等.川中丘陵区土地利用变化的生态环境效应——以中国科学院盐亭紫色土农业生态试验站集水区为例[J].山地学报,2001,(S1):14.
[4]朱波,高美荣,刘刚才,等.川中丘陵区农业生态系统的演替[J].山地学报,2003,(01):56.
[5]毛艳玲,杨玉盛,邹双全,等.土地利用变化对亚热带山地红壤团聚体有机碳的影响[J].山地学报,2007,(06):706.
[6]马永健,谢红彬*,邓红芮,等.融入功能分区的土地利用变化多情景模拟——以福建南平市建阳区为例[J].山地学报,2024,(2):225.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000818]
　MA Yongjian,XIE Hongbin*,DENG Hongrui,et al.Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes Integrated with Functional Zoning:A Case Study of Jianyang District of Nanping, Fujian Province, China[J].Mountain Research,2024,(1):225.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000818]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date): 2022-10-14; 改回日期(Accepted date):2023-02-10
基金项目(Foundation item): 国家自然科学基金(U22A20554)。[National Natural Science Foundation of China(U22A20554)]
作者简介(Biography): 闫聪聪(1997-),女,山西运城人,硕士研究生,研究方向:水文学与水资源。[YAN Congcong(1997-), female, born in Yuncheng, Shanxi province, M.Sc. candidate, research on hydrology and water resource] E-mail: yancongcong0106@163.com
*通讯作者(Corresponding author): 陈兴伟(1963-),男,博士,教授,研究方向:流域水沙污染物过程与防灾减灾。[CHEN Xingwei(1963-), male, Ph.D., professor, research on water-sediment-nutrient processes of watershed and disaster prevention and mitigation] E-mail: cxwchen215@fjnu.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 2023-01-30