[1]周 剑,汤明高*,许 强,等.重庆市滑坡降雨阈值预警模型[J].山地学报,2022,(6):847-858.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000718]
　ZHOU Jian,TANG Minggao*,XU Qiang,et al.Early Warning Model of Rainfall-Induced Landslide in Chongqing of China Based on Rainfall Threshold[J].Mountain Research,2022,(6):847-858.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000718]
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重庆市滑坡降雨阈值预警模型()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2022年第6期
页码:
847-858
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2022-12-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Early Warning Model of Rainfall-Induced Landslide in Chongqing of China Based on Rainfall Threshold
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2022)6-847-12
作者:
周 剑1; 汤明高1*; 许 强1; 吴辉隆1; 王新敏2
(1. 成都理工大学 地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,成都 610059; 2. 重庆市地质矿产勘查开发局南江水文地质工程地质队,重庆 401147)
Author(s):
ZHOU Jian1;  TANG Minggao1*;  XU Qiang1;  WU Huilong1;  WANG Xinmin2
(1.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China; 2.Nanjiang Hydrogeological Engineering Geological Team of Chongqing Geological and Mineral Exploration and Development Bureau, Chongqing 401147,China)
关键词:
重庆地区;  降雨型滑坡;  阈值模型;  监测预警
Keywords:
rainfall-type landslide;  threshold model;  monitoring and early warning;  Chongqing
分类号:
P642
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000718
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
重庆降雨型滑坡高发,是降雨型滑坡经验性降雨阈值和预报模型的研究热点地区,然而,经验性降雨阈值多存在地域局限性,不同类型的降雨阈值模型对重庆地区的适用性及精确度也有所不同。本文以重庆地区148个降雨型滑坡为研究对象,统计分析降雨特征,建立I-P、I-D以及I-E三种降雨阈值模型,采用普通最小二乘回归法(OLSR)划分临界阈值曲线,对比分析选择最优降雨阈值模型作为重庆市滑坡预警判据。结果表明:重庆市滑坡主要发生在汛期5—9月,超过88.52%滑坡发生当日均存在降雨; 滑坡事件发生前1日降雨对滑坡的诱发作用最为明显,且距离滑坡发生时间越久,滑坡事件与降雨量的相关系数明显下降; 三个降雨阈值模型进行了精度比较后,发现了降雨强度-降雨历时(I-D)阈值模型更适用用于重庆市降雨型滑坡监测预警。重庆降雨阈值模型能够为地方政府在滑坡预警方面提供科学依据和借鉴方法。
Abstract:
Rainfall-induced landslides occur frequently in Chongqing, which has been a hotspot of research on empirical rainfall threshold and prediction model of rainfall-induced landslides. However, the empirical rainfall threshold has regional limitations, and the applicability and accuracy of different types of rainfall threshold models in Chongqing are also different. In this case study, the evidence of 148 rainfall-induced landslides in Chongqing was collected for statistical analysis. The precipitation patterns were depicted, and three rainfall threshold models, I-P,I-D, and I-E were separately used for a comparison of prediction accuracy. Ordinary least squares regression(OLSR)was used to determine the critical threshold curve, and an optimal rainfall threshold model was selected as early warning criterion of landslide. The following results are obtained:(1)Landslides in Chongqing mainly occurred from May to September in flood season, and more than 88.52% of landslides had rainfall on the same day.(2)The induction effect of rainfall on landslides one day before a landslide event was most obvious, and the longer the time lag between an occurrence of landslides and rainfall, the correlation coefficient between the landslide event and the amount of rainfall decreased significantly.(3)After accuracy comparison of the three rainfall threshold models, it was found that the rainfall intensity-duration of rainfall(I-D)threshold model was more suitable for Chongqing rainfall-type landslide monitoring and early warning. The research can provide a scientific basis and reference for government in landslide warning and control.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2022-9-15; 改回日期(Accepted data):2022-12-26
基金项目(Foundation item): 重庆市规划和自然资源局科技项目(TC209D058)。[Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources Science and Technology Project Funding(TC209D058)]
作者简介(Biography): 周剑(1993-),男,博士研究生,主要研究方向:地质灾害机理、评价预测及防治。[ZHOU Jian(1993),male,Ph.D candidate,research on geological disaster mechanism, evaluation and prediction and prevention] E-mail:798294061@qq.com.
*通讯作者(Corresponding author): 汤明高(1978-),男,博士,教授,主要研究方向:地质灾害机理、评价预测及防治。[TANG Minggao(1978-), male,Ph.D, professor,research on geological disaster mechanism, evaluation and prediction and prevention] E-mail:tomyr2008@163.com.
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-12-30