[1]余淙蔚,柳 侃,殷 杰*,等.一种适用于逻辑回归模型评价浅层滑坡易发性的网格尺度划分方法——以2019年福建省三明市群发浅层滑坡为例[J].山地学报,2022,(1):106-119.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000659]
　YU Congwei,LIU Kan,YIN Jie*,et al.A Grid-Scale Division Method Applicable to Logistic Regression Models for Evaluating the Susceptibility of Shallow Landslides——Taking the 2019 Cluster of Shallow Landslides in Sanming, Fujian as Example[J].Mountain Research,2022,(1):106-119.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000659]
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一种适用于逻辑回归模型评价浅层滑坡易发性的网格尺度划分方法——以2019年福建省三明市群发浅层滑坡为例
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2022年第1期
页码:
106-119
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2022-01-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
A Grid-Scale Division Method Applicable to Logistic Regression Models for Evaluating the Susceptibility of Shallow Landslides——Taking the 2019 Cluster of Shallow Landslides in Sanming, Fujian as Example
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2022)1-106-14
作者:
余淙蔚1; 柳 侃2; 殷 杰1*; 余 斌3*
1.华东师范大学 地理科学学院,上海 200241; 2.自然资源部丘陵山地地质灾害防治重点实验室,福州 3500023.成都理工大学 地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室,成都610059
Author(s):
YU Congwei1; LIU Kan2; YIN Jie1*; YU Bin3*
1. Department of Geography, East China Normal University, Shanghai 2002412. Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention of Hilly Mountains, Ministry of Land and Resources, Fuzhou 3500023.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059
关键词:
滑坡;  易发性;  高程矩阵;  逻辑回归;  网格尺度;  福建省
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000659
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
滑坡易发性评价是滑坡防治研究的重要内容之一。在逻辑回归模型中,常用网格单元作为滑坡易发性评价单元,具有划分简单,回归效率高的优点。然而,在构建模型时直接将研究区的栅格数据转换为矩阵,每个栅格表示一个评价单元,存在滑坡样本不平衡,滑坡地形参数指标不能反映真实的滑坡地形等问题,造成评价效果统计显著性低。本文以2019年福建省三明市的群发性浅层滑坡为研究对象,借助DEM数据和航拍影像整理出131个滑坡的面积、高程、岩性和道路建筑邻近性,采用改进高程矩阵,获得了更真实的滑坡坡度、剖面曲率和平面曲率等地形参数。根据各影响因子的标准滑坡频率对滑坡的贡献分级,建立了不同网格尺度的滑坡易发性逻辑回归模型。比较了假设检验中p值大小以及100 m×100 m, 200 m×200 m, 500 m×500 m和1000 m×1000 m等不同网格尺度的滑坡易发性评价结果,确定以500 m×500 m网格为基本单位的逻辑回归模型评价效果最佳。研究表明改进后的高程矩阵计算的滑坡地形参数能够更好地描述滑坡的地形特征。在评价滑坡易发性时,逻辑回归模型中的网格尺度大小应确保滑坡发生样本为总样本的30%～70%,以避免被低估或高估; 总样本数应该在50以上,以避免模型不显著。本文提出了适用于逻辑回归模型评价滑坡易发性的网格尺度划分方法,可为滑坡的防灾减灾研究提供一定参考。

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2021-07-28; 改回日期(Accepted date): 2021-12-20
基金项目(Foundation item):福建省科技防灾课题(闽自然资发[2020]46号)。[Fujian Science and Technology Disaster Prevention Project(Fujian Department of Natural Resources [2020]No. 46)]
作者简介(Biography):余淙蔚(1999-),女,四川成都人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:GIS、地质灾害。[YU Congwei(1999-), female, born in Chengdu, Sichuan province, M.Sc. candidate, research on GIS and geological disasters] E-mail: 18701911323@163.com
*通讯作者(Corresponding author):殷杰(1983-),男,博士,教授,主要研究方向:自然灾害风险评估与风险管理。[YIN Jie(1983-), male, Ph.D., professor, research on natural disaster risk assessment and risk management]E-mail:jyin@geo.ecnu.edu.cn; 余斌(1966-),男,博士,教授,主要研究方向:泥石流灾害与防治、泥石流预报。 [YU Bin(1966-), male, Ph.D., professor, research on debris flow hazard and prevention, debris flow forecasting]E-mail:yubin08@cdut.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-01-30