[1]胡甲秋,杨云川*,廖丽萍,等.基于多源降雨的广西季节性干湿演变特征与未来趋势[J].山地学报,2018,(02):248-259.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000320]
　HU Jiaqiu,YANG Yunchuan*,LIAO Li-ping,et al.Characteristics and Future Trend of Seasonal Dry and Wet Evolution in Guangxi Based on Multiple Rainfall Data[J].Mountain Research,2018,(02):248-259.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000320]
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基于多源降雨的广西季节性干湿演变特征与未来趋势()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2018年02期
页码:
248-259
栏目:
山地环境
出版日期:
2018-03-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Characteristics and Future Trend of Seasonal Dry and Wet Evolution in Guangxi Based on Multiple Rainfall Data
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2018)2-248-12
作者:
胡甲秋1; 杨云川1; 2; 3*; 廖丽萍1; 2; 3; 邓思敏1; 陈立华1; 2; 3
1.广西大学 土木建筑工程学院,南宁 530004; 2.广西大学 工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室,南宁 530004; 3.广西大学 广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,南宁 530004
Author(s):
HU Jiaqiu1;  YANG Yunchuan1; 2; 3*;  LIAO Li-ping1; 2; 3;  DENG Simin1;  CHEN Lihua1; 2; 3
1.College of Civil engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China; 2.Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China; 3.Guangxi Key Laboratory of Di
关键词:
降水量距平百分率;  季节性干湿;  干湿演变;  气候模态
Keywords:
percentage of precipitation anomalies;  seasonal dry and wet;  dry and wet evolution;  climate mode
分类号:
P429; P426.6
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000320
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
基于高时空分辨率的APHRODITE和TRMM降雨数据,采用降水量距平百分率、DEOF及R/S分析等方法,对近65年来广西季节性气象干湿演变的频率、范围、强度、时空分异及未来趋势进行了分析。结果表明:(1)广西年湿润和年干旱频率均呈现从桂东南向桂西北逐渐递减的分布特征,而年内不同季节的湿润和干旱频率空间分布差异显著; 湿润与干旱的影响范围和强度在年、季尺度上均呈交替出现且增减波动的变化特征,但各自的变化差异显著。(2)广西干湿演变存在不同年、季周期的交替强弱振荡,其空间特征主要表现为年、冬季的东南-西北相反型,春季的全区一致型,夏季的南北相反型,秋季的东西相反型。(3)广西未来降雨量的增强趋势在年、夏季显著; 而在春、秋、冬季节总体一般或略呈减弱趋势。上述研究成果可作为进一步深入开展广西干湿演变预警与水旱灾害防治的重要科学基础。
Abstract:
The seasonal meteorological dry and wet evolution of Guangxi, which referred to frequency, range, intensity, temporal spatial variation and future trend adopted by precipitation anomaly percentage, DEOF and R/S methods, were analyzed in this paper over the past 65 years, based on APHRODITE and TRMM rainfall data.The results showed that:(1)Annual dry/wet frequency decreased gradually from southeast to northwest of Guangxi, however, seasonal dry/wet frequency presented significant differences in spatial distribution within a year.The affected range and intensity of dry/wet varied alternately and fluctuated both in annual and seasonal scales, but their variation were significant differences among these time scales.(2)The dry-wet temporal evolution emerged alternating strong and weak oscillations in all annual and seasonal scales, and the spatial variation declared different patterns, such as: the reverse type of southeast-northwest in the yearly scale and in winter, the uniformity type of whole region in spring, the opposite type of north and south in summer, and the reverse type of east and west in autumn.(3)The future rainfall in Guangxi would increase significantly in summer and in the annual scale, with slight decrease in spring, autumn and winter.This research would be an important scientific basis for further wet and dry evolution warning and dry-wet disaster prevention in Guangxi.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2017-06-13; 改回日期(Accepted date):2017-12-10
基金项目(Foundation item):国家自然科学基金项目(51609041); 广西自然科学基金资助项目(2015GXNSFBA139222); 广西重点实验室系统性研究项目资助(2016ZDX01)。[National Nature Science Foundation of China(51609041); Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi(2015GXNSFBA139222); Systematic Project of Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety(2016ZDX01).]
作者简介(Biography):胡甲秋(1993-),女,广西玉林人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:干旱灾害风险评估。[HU Jiaqiu, female, M.Sc.candidate, research on drought disaster risk assessment.] E-mail: hjiaqiu1993@163.com
*通讯作者(Corresponding author):杨云川(1982-),男,宁夏中宁人,博士,硕导,主要研究方向:水文水资源。[YANG Yunchuan, male, Ph.D, research on hydrology and water resources.] E-mail: yyc_sciences@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-03-30