[1]刘东飞,王雄师*,杨 欢,等.基于可靠度分析的甘肃舟曲泄流坡滑坡风险评价[J].山地学报,2017,(03):323-331.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000228]
　LIU Dongfei,WANG Xiongshi,YANG Huan,et al.Risk Assessment of Zhouqu Xieliupo Landslide based on Reliability Analysis in Zhouqu County of Gansu Province[J].Mountain Research,2017,(03):323-331.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000228]
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基于可靠度分析的甘肃舟曲泄流坡滑坡风险评价()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2017年03期
页码:
323-331
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2017-05-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk Assessment of Zhouqu Xieliupo Landslide based on Reliability Analysis in Zhouqu County of Gansu Province
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2017)3-323-09
作者:
刘东飞1; 王雄师2*; 杨 欢1; 舒和平1
1.兰州大学 资源环境学院西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州 730000;
2.甘肃省科学院 地质自然灾害防治研究所,兰州 730000
Author(s):
LIU Dongfei1;  WANG Xiongshi2; YANG Huan1;  SHU Heping1
1.Key Laboratory of Western China's Environment Systems of the Ministry of Education, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 73000, China;
2.Geological Disaster Prevention and Control Institute, Gansu Provincial Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 73000,China
关键词:
蒙特卡洛法;  失稳概率;  风险评价;  泄流坡滑坡
Keywords:
Monte Carlo method;  instability probability;  risk assessment;  Xieliupo landslide
分类号:
P694
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000228
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
基于野外勘察与室内试验,拟以舟曲泄流坡滑坡为研究对象。采用传递系数法对滑坡稳定性进行分析,利用Monte Carlo法得到滑坡不同工况下的失稳概率,且引入条件概率分析不同诱因下滑坡失稳的年概率; 易损性以承灾体野外调查和统计分析为基础,运用赋值法估算泄流坡滑坡潜在的财产损失和人口伤亡风险值; 因此建立单体滑坡风险评价模型,探讨单体滑坡风险评价技术方法。研究结果表明,泄流坡滑坡在地震加暴雨条件下具有中危险性; 在≥50 mm暴雨条件或者地震条件下具有高危险性,财产最大风险为34.75万元/年,人口最大风险为0.03人/年,人口风险超过了国际上暂定的社会容许标准,应采取监测观察、工程治理等相关手段进行风险管理。
Abstract:
Based on field surveies and laboratory experiments, - the stability of Xieliupo landslide in Zhouqu County was investigated by transfer coefficient method.The probability of annual unstable landslide was estimated by the Monte Carlo method under different conditions when the conditional probability was introduced.The calculation of the vulnerability depends on the field investigation and statistics of hazard-affected bodies and the assignment method was applied to evaluate the potential risk of economic loss and casualties.The single landslide risk assessment model and its related technologies were established and discussed, respectively.The results suggested that Xieliupo landslide had a middle risk to occur when earthquake and heavy rain occurred simultaneously.However, it would have a high risk when heavy rain( precipitation ≥50 mm)or earthquake occurred.The maximum property loss was 0.3475 million yuan per year and the maximum deaths was 0.03 person per year, which was more than the current international society standard.Therefore, the risk management by different methods(i.e.monitoring and observation, project management, etc.)should be adopted to avoid it.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2015-06-16; 改回日期(Accepted date):2016-11-15。
基金项目(Foundation item):国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK12B05)。[National Science and Technology Support Program(2011BAK12B05).]
作者简介(Biography):刘东飞(1988-),男,汉族,湖北松滋人,硕士研究生,主要从事滑坡灾害风险评价研究。[Liu dongfei(1988-),male,M.Sc.candidate,major in landslide hazard risk assessment research.] E-mail:liudf13@lzu.edu.cn
*通讯作者(Corresponding author):王雄师(1969-),男, 甘肃静宁人,博士,副研究员,主要从事水文资源方面研究。[Wang Xiongshi(1969-),male,born in Jingning county,Gansu,Ph.D,associate professor,research on hydrological resources.] E-mail: 771997308@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-05-30