[1]潘真真,苏维词*,王建伟.基于可拓-马尔科夫模型的贵州省生态安全预警[J].山地学报,2016,(05):580-590.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000165]
　PAN Zhenzhen,SU Weici,WANG Jianwei.Early-warning Model Based on Extension and Markov for Ecological Security in Guizhou[J].Mountain Research,2016,(05):580-590.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000165]
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基于可拓-马尔科夫模型的贵州省生态安全预警()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2016年05期
页码:
580-590
栏目:
山地生态与环境
出版日期:
2016-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Early-warning Model Based on Extension and Markov for Ecological Security in Guizhou
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2016)5-580-11
作者:
潘真真1; 苏维词1; 2; 3*; 王建伟4
1.重庆师范大学 地理与旅游学院,重庆 400047;
2.贵州科学院 山地资源研究所,贵州 贵阳 550001;
3.重庆市三峡库区地表过程与环境遥感重点实验室,重庆 400047;
4.中国地质大学 生物地质与环境地质国家重点实验室, 湖北 武汉 430074
Author(s):
PAN Zhenzhen1; SU Weici1; 2; 3; WANG Jianwei4
1.Geography and Tourism College,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 400047,China;
2.Institute of Mountain Resources of Guizhou Province,Guiyang 550001,China;
3.Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Environmental Remote Sensing in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, Chongqing 400047, China;
4.State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology,China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074,China
关键词:
可拓马尔科夫模型;  生态安全;  预警模型;  贵州省
Keywords:
Extension and Markov model;  ecological security;  early-warning model;  Guizhou province
分类号:
X171.1
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000165
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
基于1990—2013年贵州省生态安全的相关数据,从压力、状态、响应三个方面构建贵州省生态安全预警指标体系,运用惩罚型变权-可拓模型对1990—2013年贵州省生态安全预警等级进行测度,并运用马尔科夫模型对贵州省2014—2020年生态安全警情进行预测。结果表明:1)贵州省1990—2013年生态安全等级分为:巨警、向重警转换、重警、向中警转换、中警、向轻警转换,整体呈波动上升的趋势,指示灯由“红色”演化为“待定”; 2)贵州省2014—2020年生态安全预警等级为:中警和轻警,指示灯为“黄色”和“蓝色”,生态安全状况具有恶化的趋势; 3)影响贵州省生态安全水平的主要因素包括人口自然增长率、农民人均纯收入、GDP增长率、石漠化面积比重、水土流失治理比例等,是今后调控的重点。研究结果可为贵州省生态安全的维护提供参考。
Abstract:
Based on the related data of ecological security in Guizhou Province from 2002 to 2012, this paper constructed an early-warning index system for Guizhou Province,China from three aspects: pressure,state and response. Testing early warning degrees of ecological security in Guizhou Province from 1990 to 2013 by using the method of punished variable weight and extension analysis model,forecasting ecological security state in Guizhou Province from 2014 to 2020 by the Markov model. The results indicated that:1)The security grade of Guizhou Province from 1990 to 2013 are divided into: Huge alarm,converting into Heavy alarm,Heavy alarm,converting into Medium alarm,Medium alarm,converting into Light alarm,Overall,the level of ecological security showed an upward trend and the indicator light turned from “red” to “pending”.2)The warning degree will be Medium alarm and Light alarm in Guizhou Province from 2014 to 2020,the indicator light will be “Yellow” and “Blue”,But it has the trend of deterioration.3)The main factors which influence the ecological security of Guizhou Province include natural population growth rate, net income of rural households, GDP growth rate,proportion of Rocky desertification, improvement rate of soil and water loss. These are focus of ecological security regulation in the future. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance for Guizhou province.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2015-11-16; 改回日期( Accepted):2015-12-28。
基金项目(Foundation item):国家自然科学基金(41261038); 贵州应用基础重大科技专项(JZ [2014]200206); 贵州省科技创新人才团队(【2014】4014); 重庆市研究生科研创新项目(CYS14138)。[National Natural Science Foundation of China(41261038); Science and Technology Projects of Guizhou Province(JZ [2014] 200206); Science and Technology Innovation Talents Team of Guizhou Province(【2014】4014); Graduate Student Research Innovation Project of Chongqing(CYS14138).]
作者简介(Biography):潘真真(1990-),女,河南漯河人,硕士研究生,研究方向:区域发展与城乡规划。[Pan Zhenzhen,(1990-),female,born in Luohe, Henan, M.Sc candidate, major in regional development and urban-rural planning.] E-mail:746299901@qq.com
*通信作者(Corresponding author):苏维词,男,研究员,主要从事生态环境与可持续发展研究。[Su Weici, male, professor, mainly engaged in ecological environment and sustainable development study.]E-mail:suweici@sina.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-09-30