[1]王 祺,蒙吉军*,孙 宁.基于RRM模型和不确定性分析的喀斯特地区生态风险管理——贵阳市案例研究[J].山地学报,2016,(04):476-484.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000153]
　WANG Qi,MENG Jijun,SUN Ning.Ecological Risk Management in Karst Area based on RRM and Uncertainty Analysis: A Case Study in Guiyang City[J].Mountain Research,2016,(04):476-484.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000153]
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基于RRM模型和不确定性分析的喀斯特地区生态风险管理——贵阳市案例研究()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2016年04期
页码:
476-484
栏目:
山区发展
出版日期:
2016-08-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Ecological Risk Management in Karst Area based on RRM and Uncertainty Analysis: A Case Study in Guiyang City
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2016)4-476-09
作者:
王 祺1; 蒙吉军1*; 孙 宁2
1.北京大学城市与环境学院/地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室,北京100871;
2.环境保护部中国环境规划院,北京 100012
Author(s):
WANG Qi1; MENG Jijun1; SUN Ning2
1.Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes,Ministry of Education;
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;
2.Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning,MEP,Beijing 100012,China
关键词:
区域生态风险;  相对风险评价模型;  不确定性;  喀斯特地区;  贵阳市
Keywords:
regional ecological risk;  Relative Risk Model;  uncertainty;  karst area;  Guiyang City
分类号:
F062.2,X171
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000153
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
喀斯特地区因自然条件和人类活动的双重作用,成为生态灾害频发的区域。区域生态风险评价应结合区域生态特征,从多角度衡量生态风险组分,进而识别生态风险的空间差异,为风险管理提供依据。以喀斯特典型生态脆弱区贵阳市为研究区,运用相对风险评价模型对区域生态风险特征进行识别,并采用蒙特卡洛模拟进行不确定性分析,进而提出生态风险管理措施。结果表明:1)贵阳市生态风险具有显著的空间差异,呈现出以市区为生态风险高值区向周围区域辐射递减的空间格局; 2)人类活动强度是影响贵阳市生态风险最主要的因素,景观格局稳定性影响生态系统的稳定性和恢复力,地形、石漠化在一定程度上加剧生态风险的发生; 3)不确定性分析进一步验证了模型的有效性,并表明不确定性对风险评价的干扰是局部的,主要体现在低风险区。研究结果对贵阳市生态系统空间管理具有重要的指导意义。
Abstract:
Affected by natural conditions and human activities,karst areas have gained more ecological catastrophes. Regional ecological risk assessment combines regional ecological characteristics,and measures ecological risk components and identifies ecological risk spatial differences,which provide a basis for risk management. We took Guiyang City,which is a typical karst ecological fragile area,as our research area,and applied Relative Risk Model to identify regional ecological risk characteristics. Following Monte Carlo Simulation uncertainty analysis,we came up with ecological risk management measures for Guiyang City. Conclusions obtain: 1)RRM is efficient for representing ecological risk spatial pattern for Guiyang City,showing that ecological risk decreases from urban-dominated high level area outwards to suburb area; 2)Human activity intensity is the most important factor affecting ecological risk in Guiyang City,while landscape pattern stability affects ecosystem's stability and resilience. Terrain and rocky desertification will aggravate ecological risk to some extent; 3)Uncertainty analysis has furtherly verified models' validity. It showed that uncertainty will do local interference with risk assessment,mainly on low risk area. Results will hold an important and meaningful instruction to ecosystem spatial management in Guiyang City.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2015-07-01; 修回日期(Accepted):2015-09-07。
基金项目(Foundation item):“生物多样性保护专项(2002403712)”,国家自然科学基金项目(41371097)资助。[Biological Diversity Project(2002403712),National Natural Science Foundation of China(41371097).]
作者简介(Biography):王祺(1990-),男,云南普洱人,硕士研究生。主要从事资源环境管理研究。[Wang Qi(1990-), male, bachelor, major in study of resources and environmental management.] E-mail: wangqi901025@pku.edu.cn, Tel: 15210623720
*通信作者(Corresponding author):蒙吉军(1971-),男,副教授。[Meng Jijun(1971-), male, associate professor.]
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-07-30