[1]林 丽,樊 辉*,金 缘.山区县域土地利用/覆被变化多尺度多模型模拟对比——以云南省勐腊县为例[J].山地学报,2020,(4):630-642.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000540]
 LIN Li,FAN Hui*,JIN Yuan.Multi-Scale and Multi-Model Simulation of Land Use/Land Cover Change in the Mountainous County: A Case Study of Mengla County in Yunnan Province, China[J].Mountain Research,2020,(4):630-642.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000540]
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山区县域土地利用/覆被变化多尺度多模型模拟对比——以云南省勐腊县为例()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2020年第4期
页码:
630-642
栏目:
山地技术
出版日期:
2020-09-27

文章信息/Info

Title:
Multi-Scale and Multi-Model Simulation of Land Use/Land Cover Change in the Mountainous County: A Case Study of Mengla County in Yunnan Province, China
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2020)4-630-13
作者:
林 丽12樊 辉12*金 缘3
1.云南大学 国际河流与生态安全研究院,昆明 650091; 2.云南省国际河流与跨境生态重点实验室,昆明 650091; 3.中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都 610041
Author(s):
LIN Li12 FAN Hui12* JIN Yuan3
1.Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China; 2. Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Kunming 650091, China; 3. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
关键词:
土地利用/覆被变化模拟 栅格尺度 LCM模型 FLUS模型 CA-Markov模型 CLUE-S模型
Keywords:
land use/land cover change simulation grid scale LCM model FLUS model CA-Markov model CLUE-S model
分类号:
P237
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000540
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)模拟及其尺度效应一直是土地变化科学的研究内容与难点。本文选择西南沿边山区县域——云南省勐腊县为试验区,利用LCM、FLUS、CA-Markov和CLUE-S探究该县域LUCC模拟的最适模型和栅格尺度。结合1994年、2004年两期Landsat TM影像分类生成的土地利用/覆被数据,以及自然与社会经济数据,在60、90、120、150、180、210和240 m七个栅格尺度下模拟该县域2014年土地利用/覆被空间格局,并以同期土地利用/覆被遥感分类数据为参考来评价模型模拟精度,筛选出最适模型和栅格尺度,进而模拟该县域2024年土地利用/覆被格局。研究表明:四种模型均能较好地模拟该县域土地利用/覆被变化(Kstandard=0.67~0.84),其中以LCM模型模拟精度最高(Kstandard=0.77~0.84); 各模型对不同土地利用/覆被类型的适用性不同,LCM模型模拟林地、园地和耕地效果最好,而FLUS模型模拟建设用地更佳; 四种模型模拟LUCC的最适栅格尺度均为120 m,其Kstandard>0.70。整合不同地类的最适模型和栅格尺度模拟结果有利于提高山区县域LUCC模拟精度。
Abstract:
Land use/land cover change(LUCC)simulation and its scale effect are the hot and unresolved topics of land change science. In this study, Mengla County of Yunnan Province in the southwest border mountainous region was choosen as a study site to address the optimal simulation model and grid scale of LUCC in a mountainous environment. The land use/land cover status of the study site in 2014 was simulated at seven grid scales, such as 60 m, 90 m, 120 m, 150 m, 180 m, 210 m and 240 m, using LCM, FLUS, CA-Markov and CLUE-S models, taking the land use/land cover data classified from Landsat TM images acquired in 1994 and 2004 together with natural and socio-economic data between 1994 and 2004 as inputs. The simulation results were assessed using the classified land use/land cover results for 2014, produced from the Landsat OLI images, as a reference data. Subsequently, the land use/land cover situation in 2024 was projected from the selected optimal simulation model and grid scale. The results show that the four models performed well in the study site(standard kappa coefficient, Kstandard = 0.67~0.84), and the LCM model outperformed the other three models, with the Kstandard values of 0.77~0.84. However, performances of the four models varied with land use/land cover types and the examined grid scales. The LCM model performed better in simulating forest, plantation and farmland, whereas the FLUS model did better for simulating built-up land. For all the four models, the optimal grid scale of simulation was 120 m, with the corresponding Kstandard values above 0.70. Therefore, the integration of the optimal model and grid scale of different land use/land cover types is beneficial to improving the accuracy of LUCC simulation in mountainous regions.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2019-10-12; 改回日期(Accepted date): 2020-07-09
基金项目(Foundation item):国家自然科学基金项目(41461017,41971239)。[National Natuural Science Foundation of China(41461017, 41971239)]
作者简介(Biography): 林丽(1996-),女,山东邹城人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:地理空间过程模拟。[LIN Li(1996-),female, born in Zoucheng, Shandong province, M. Sc. candidate, research on geospatial process simulation] E-mail: lily96@mail.ynu.edu.cn
*通讯作者(Corresponding author):樊辉(1972-), 男,江西修水人,博士,研究员,主要研究方向:山地环境遥感研究。[FAN Hui(1972-), male, bron in Xiushui, Jiangxi province, Ph.D., professor, specialized in remote sensing of mountain environment] E-mail: fanhui@ynu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-07-30