[1]徐瑞池,李秀珍*,胡凯衡,等.横断山区山地灾害的动态风险性评价[J].山地学报,2020,(2):222-230.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000504]
　XU Ruichi,LI Xiuzhen*,HU Kaiheng,et al.A Dynamic Risk Assessment for Mountain Hazards in the Hengduan Mountain Region, China[J].Mountain Research,2020,(2):222-230.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000504]
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横断山区山地灾害的动态风险性评价()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2020年第2期
页码:
222-230
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2020-05-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
A Dynamic Risk Assessment for Mountain Hazards in the Hengduan Mountain Region, China
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2020)2-222-09
作者:
徐瑞池1; 2; 李秀珍1*; 胡凯衡1; 聂银瓶1; 2; 边江豪3
1. 中国科学院、水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,成都 610041; 2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049; 3. 北京航天控制仪器研究所,北京 100854
Author(s):
XU Ruichi1; 2;  LI Xiuzhen1*;  HU Kaiheng1;  NIE Yinping1; 2;  Bian Jianghao3
1. Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. Beijing Academician Control Device Institute, Beijing 100854, China.
关键词:
山地灾害;  横断山区;  动态危险性;  动态易损性;  动态风险性
Keywords:
mountain hazards;  Hengduan Mountain Region;  dynamic hazard assessment;  dynamic vulnerability assessment;  dynamic risk assessment
分类号:
X43
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000504
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
对横断山区山地灾害进行科学的动态风险评价,可为区域防灾减灾工作提供重要的科学依据,同时对该区域的社会和谐稳定、经济稳步发展具有重要的现实意义。本文以横断山区为研究区,以五年年际变化为动态变化时间尺度,构建了山地灾害风险动态评价模型。首先选取发育山地灾害的本底因子作为静态危险度评价因子,采用频率比法计算了静态危险度,采用因子叠加法实现了横断山区山地灾害的动态危险性评价; 然后选取人口密度、GDP密度和土地利用类型作为动态易损性评价指标,通过简化模型完成了动态易损性评价; 最后根据风险评价模型结合动态危险性和动态易损性评价结果,得到了横断山区山地灾害不同年份的风险区划图并完成了动态风险评价。主要结果分述如下:(1)横断山区北部、西北部危险性低,为低和中危险性集中区; 南部、东南部危险性高,为高和极高危险性集中区;(2)位于横断山区南部及东北部的高和极高危险区的地区人口较为密集,经济活动性较强,其易损性等级比较高,相应的风险级别同样较高;(3)横断山区受强降雨次数、人口密度、GDP密度和土地利用的动态变化的影响,各年山地灾害的风险性的空间分布范围具有比较明显的差异,横断山区的风险性随时间动态变化。
Abstract:
Scientific and dynamic risk assessment of mountain hazards in Hengduan Mountain region can provide an important scientific basis for regional disaster prevention and mitigation and has important practical significance for the social harmony and the steady economic development. In this study, a dynamic risk evaluation model of mountain hazards was constructed with the mountain hazards including landslides, collapses and debris flows taking as research object and the interannual change taking as the time scale of dynamic analysis. Firstly, the background factors affecting mountain hazards were selected as the evaluation factors, and the static hazard degree of the mountain hazards in the region was calculated by using frequency ratio method. on this basis, the dynamic impact of rainfall as main inducing factor was considered, and dynamic hazard assessment was completed by factor superposition method. Then, population density, GDP density and land use types were selected as vulnerability assessment factors, and dynamic vulnerability assessment was completed through a simple statistical model. Finally, dynamic risk assessment of the mountain hazards of Hengduan Mountain region was realized, combined with the results of dynamic hazard and vulnerability assessment results. The results showed that:(1)The high and extremely high-risk areas were mainly distributed in the southern and northeastern parts of the Hengduan Mountain region, where the number of heavy rainfalls was high, and the hazard of the region showed an overall trend of low northwest and high southeast.(2)In the high and extremely high-risk areas of the southern and northeastern parts, the population was relatively dense, and the economic activity was strong, so the vulnerability level of the mountain hazards was relatively high, and the corresponding risk level was also high.(3)The spatial distribution of mountain hazard risk in the region had obvious differences in different year and the risk of the region changes dynamically with time, due to the influence of the dynamic factors such as rainfall, population density, GDP density and land use.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2019-05-04; 改回日期(Accepted date):2020-04-11
基金项目(Foundation item):国家自然科学面上基金项目(Y8K1200200); 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2015CB452704)。[National Natural Science Foundation of China(General Program)(Y8K1200200); National Key Basic Research and Development Program of China(973 Program)(2015CB452704)]
作者简介(Biography):徐瑞池(1995-),男,湖北黄石人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向:地质灾害影响及评价。[XU Ruichi(1995-), male, born in Huangshi, Hubei province, M. Sc. candidate, research on the evaluation and prediction study of geological hazards] E-mail: 474220627@qq.com
*通讯作者(Corresponding author):李秀珍(1975-),女,内蒙古卓资县人,博士,副研究员,主要研究方向:地质灾害评价及预测。 [LI Xiuzhen(1975-), female, Ph.D., associate professor, specialized in the evaluation and prediction study of geological hazards] E-mail: lxzljt@sina.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-03-30