[1]熊俊楠,龚 颖,程维明*,等.西藏自治区近30年山洪灾害时空分布特征[J].山地学报,2018,(04):557-570.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000352]
　XIONG Junnan,GONG Ying,CHENG Weiming*,et al.Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Mountain Floods in Tibet, China in Recent 30 Years[J].Mountain Research,2018,(04):557-570.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000352]
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西藏自治区近30年山洪灾害时空分布特征()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2018年04期
页码:
557-570
栏目:
山地灾害
出版日期:
2018-07-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Mountain Floods in Tibet, China in Recent 30 Years
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2018)4-557-14
作者:
熊俊楠1; 2; 龚 颖1; 程维明2*; 范春捆3; 王 楠2
1.西南石油大学 土木工程与建筑学院,成都 610500; 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 资源与环境信息系统 国家重点实验室,北京 100101; 3.西藏自治区农牧科学院 农业研究所,拉萨850000
Author(s):
XIONG Junnan1; 2; GONG Ying1; CHENG Weiming2*; FAN Cunkun3; WANG Nan2
1.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China; 2.State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of S
关键词:
西藏自治区;  山洪;  时空分布;  突变分析
Keywords:
Tibet;  mountain flood;  spatio-temporal distribution;  catastrophe analysis
分类号:
P954; X43
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000352
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
山洪灾害时空分布特征分析是区域山洪防治规划、监测预警的基础。通过收集西藏自治区1983-2015年的历史山洪灾害数据,利用地理信息时空统计、数据挖掘分析等方法对西藏山洪灾害的时空分布特征及突变情况进行分析,并探讨了山洪与不同降水指标的分布关系。结果表明:(1)西藏自治区1983-2015年均发生山洪灾害32次,主要在7、8月份,其逐年变化呈y=0.012x3-0.4123x2+4.5769x-7.748的三次函数增长,且周期变化存在多时间尺度特征,主要表现在33a特征时间尺度下,周期变化具有全域性,平均周期为21a;(2)西藏山洪主要分布在日喀则、山南和林芝三个地级市,仁布和察隅两个县域以及西藏东、南部的索曲河流域,雅鲁藏布江中游、拉萨河流域的山区,分布密度在0～3.29次/100 km2,1983-1993年山洪分布方向趋势性最明显,2005-2015年山洪分布范围最广,随机性最强,三个时段平均中心均位于拉萨市,中心趋势变化不大;(3)1997年和2009年为西藏山洪突变的年份,突变主要集中在雅鲁藏布江中游及拉萨河流域,1997年密度变化范围在-0.15～1.15次/100 km2,而2009年为-1.13～0.97次/100 km2;(4)以30°N和90°E线为界,降水指标的分布与西藏山洪灾害的分布具有一定的相似性。不同类型的降水指标山洪灾害集中分布的降水区间不同,其中年均最大60分钟降水指标对山洪灾害分布较为敏感。这些结果对促进山洪灾害数据挖掘与时空分析理论、西藏地区山洪灾害科学减灾等具有重要的理论和现实意义。
Abstract:
Understanding of the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of mountain flood is the basis for regional mountain flood control planning, monitoring and early warning.In this study, an investigation into the spatio-temporal distribution and the abrupt changes of mountain torrents was conducted in Tibetan, followed by the collecting of historical mountain flood data and rainfall records from 1983 to 2015.Methods of geographic analysis, include spatio-temporal statistics and data mining technique, etc.were borrowed to explore the distribution relationship between mountain floods and different precipitation indicators.The results showed that:(1)there were a mean annual of 32 flash flood occurrences in Tibet from 1983 to 2015, mainly in July and August.The yearly change in the floods could be descried as cubic function y=0.012x3-0.4123x2+4.5769x-7.748 and there were multiple time scale features in the periodic variation, which was mainly manifested at the 33a characteristic time scale.The periodic change had a regional nature with an average period of 21a;(2)The mountain floods in Tibet were mainly distributed in the three prefecture-level cities of Shigatse, Shannan and Nyingchi, the two counties of Rinbung and Zayü, the Suqu River basin in the east and south of Tibet, the mountainous areas of the Lhasa river valley, the midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River.The distribution density was between 0～3.29 times/100 km2.From 1983 to 1993, there appeared to be the most obvious trend of directional distribution for mountain floods and from 2005 to 2015, the distribution was the widest and the randomness was the strongest.The average center of the three periods was located in Lhasa, and the central trend did not change much.(3)1997 and 2009 were the years of flood outbreak in Tibet.The abrupt changes were mainly concentrated in the middle reaches of the Brahmaputra and the Lhasa River, with a density variation of -0.15 to 1.15 times/100 km2 in 1997 and -1.13～0.97 times/100 km2 in 2009;(4)with the 30°N and 90°E lines as the boundary, the distribution of rainfall index had fine consistency with the distribution of floods disaster in Tibet.Different types of precipitation indicators had close connections with the precipitation intervals of the centralized distribution of mountain floods, along which the annual average maximum 60-minute precipitation index was sensitive to the distribution of mountain floods.These results are of great theoretical and practical significance in promoting the data mining and spatio-temporal analysis of mountain torrents in Tibet, and in the scientific disaster reduction.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2018-04-11; 改回日期(Accepted date):2018-08-21
基金项目(Foundation item):水科院全国山洪灾害调查评价项目(SHZH-IWHR-57); 国家自然科学基金项目(51774250); 西藏自治区科技支撑计划项目(省809)。[National Mountain Flood Disaster Investigation Project(SHZH-IWHR-57); National Natural Science Foundation of China(51774250); Science and Technology Support Project of Tibet Autonomous Region(Province 809)]
作者简介(Biography):熊俊楠(1981-)男,四川南充人,在站博士后,副教授,主要从事地理信息系统与灾害风险分析方面的研究。 [XIONG Junnan(1981-), male, born in Nanchong, Sichuan province, postdoctoral, associate professor, mainly engaged in the research on GIS and disaster risk analysis] E-mail: neu_xjn@163.com
*通讯作者(Corresponding author):程维明(1973-)男,博士,研究员,主要从事数字地形地貌研究。 [CHENG Weiming(1973-), male, Ph.D., professor, specialized in digital geomorphology] E-mail: chengwm@lreis.ac.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-07-30