[1]徐 飞,贾仰文*,牛存稳,等.横断山区气温和降水年季月变化特征[J].山地学报,2018,(02):171-183.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000313]
　XU Fei,JIA Yangwen*,et al.Variation Character of Annual, Seasonal and Monthly Temperature and Precipitation[J].Mountain Research,2018,(02):171-183.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000313]
点击复制

横断山区气温和降水年季月变化特征()
分享到：

《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2018年02期
页码:
171-183
栏目:
山地环境
出版日期:
2018-03-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Variation Character of Annual, Seasonal and Monthly Temperature and Precipitation
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2018)2-171-13
作者:
徐 飞1; 2; 贾仰文1*; 牛存稳1; 刘佳嘉1; 张汶海1; 3
1.中国水利水电科学研究院 流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038; 2.中国农业大学 水利与土木工程学院,北京 100083; 3.清华大学 水利水电工程系,北京 100084
Author(s):
XU Fei1;  2;  JIA Yangwen1*;  NIU Cunwen1;  LIU Jiajia1;  ZHANG Wenhai1;  3
1.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China; 2.College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beiji
关键词:
横断山区;  气温;  降水;  变化特征
Keywords:
Hengduan Mountains region;  temperature;  precipitation;  variation character
分类号:
P466
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000313
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为详尽分析横断山区气候变化过程,利用横断山区内90个气象站点的1961-2011年气温和降水资料,采用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall 非参数趋势和突变检验法、反距离加权插值法等方法研究了横断山区气温和降水年、季、月的多时间尺度下的变化规律和变化趋势的空间分布情况。结果表明:1961-2011年横断山区气温以0.16 ℃/10 a的速率显著升高,降水以11.41 mm/10 a的速率呈现不显著的递减趋势,说明横断山区呈现变暖变干的趋势,2000年以后暖干趋势尤为明显。从气温和降水的变化趋势的空间分布来看,气温升温趋势北部比南部剧烈,西部比东部更为剧烈,降水减少趋势呈现南部比北部更剧烈。1961-2011年横断山区春夏秋冬四季气温分别以0.09、0.14、0.16和0.27 ℃/10 a的速率显著升高。夏、秋、冬季降水分别以-7.88、-8.90、-2.61 mm/10 a的速率呈不显著减少的趋势,春季降水以7.34 mm/10 a的速率显著增加。1961-2011年横断山区全年12个月的气温都呈升高趋势,1-5月降水呈现增加趋势,6-12月减少。分析表明在大气环流发生异常(北极涛动、南极涛动、东亚夏季风、西太平洋副高、南亚高压和海温)和人类活动的共同影响下,横断山区气候呈现暖干的趋势。研究结果为把握横断山区对全球气候变化的响应程度,水资源的合理开发利用提供依据。
Abstract:
To detailed analyze the climate change process in the Hengduan Mountains region(HDMR), spatiotemporal variation of temperature and precipitation were analyzed based on the temperature and precipitation data at 90 meteorological stations in this region from 1961 to 2011, by the linear regression method, the Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test and the inverse distance weighted interpolation.The results indicated that the annual mean temperature in the HDMR exhibited significantly increasing trends of 0.16 ℃/10 a during 1961-2011, while the annual precipitation showed a nonsignificant decreasing trend at a rate of -11.41 mm/10 a.It implied that the HDMR tended to be much warm and dry.From the spatial distribution of the variation trends of temperature and precipitation, the warming trend of the north was fiercer than that of the south, the west was more intense than the east; and the trend of decreasing precipitation showed that the south was more intense than the north.At the seasonal scale, the temperature increased by 0.09,0.14,0.16 and 0.27 ℃/10 a in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively.Precipitation decreased by -7.76, -8.49 and -2.07 mm/10 a in summer, autumn, and winter, respectively, and increased by 7.34 mm/10 a in spring.At the monthly scale, all twelve monthly mean temperatures exhibited an increasing trend, and the precipitation showed increasing trends from January to May and decreasing trends from June to December.In addition, causes of climate changes were also analyzed.This study can be helpful for deeper understanding of the variabilities in temperature and precipitation in response to climate change, and will provide supports for the water resource management in the HDMR.

参考文献/References:

[1] CAI Yangpeng, HUANG Gordon, TAN Qian, et al.Identification of optimal strategies for improving eco-resilience to floods in ecologically vulnerable regions of a wetland [J].Ecological Modelling, 2011, 222(2): 360-369
[2] BOCCOLARI M, MALMUSI S.Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy [J].Atmospheric Research, 2013,122: 16-31
[3] 丁一汇, 任国玉.气候变化国家评估报告(I)[J].气候变化研究进展,2006,2(1): 3-8, 50 [DING Yihui, REN Guoyu.National assessment report of climate change(I)[J].Advances in Climate Change Research, 2006, 2(1): 3-8, 50]
[4] 卢爱刚,庞德谦,何元庆,等.全球升温对中国区域温度纬向梯度的影响[J].地理科学, 2006, 26(3): 345-350 [LU Aigang, PANG Deqian, HE Yuanqing, et al.Impact of global warming on latitudinal temperature gradients in China [J].Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2006, 26(3): 345-350]
[5] 杜军, 翁海卿, 袁雷,等.近 40 年西藏怒江河谷盆地的气候特征及变化趋势[J].地理学报, 2009,64(5): 581-591 [DU Jun, WENG Haiqing, YUAN Lei, et al.The climate characteristics and changing trends over the Nujiang river basin in Tibet from 1971 to 2008 [J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(5): 581-591]
[6] 樊辉,何大明.怒江流域气候特征及其变化趋势[J].地理学报,2012,67(5): 621-630 [FAN Hui, HE Daming.Regional climate and its change in the Nujiang River basin [J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(5): 621-630]
[7] PEIN N, BRADLEY RS, DIAZ HF, et al.Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world [J].Nature Climate Chang, 2015, 5(5), 424-430
[8] LI Zongxing, HE Yuanqing, WANG Chunfen, et al.Spatial and temporal trends of temperature and precipitation during 1960-2008 at the Hengduan Mountains, China [J].Quaternary International, 2011, 236: 127-142
[9] 李宗省,何元庆,辛惠娟,等.我国横断山区1960-2008年气温和降水时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2010,65(5): 563-579 [LI Zongxing, HE Yuanqing, XIN Huijuan, et al.Spatio-temporal variations of temperature and precipitation in Mts.Hengduan region during 1960-2008 [J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(5): 563-579]
[10] 姚永慧, 张百平, 韩芳.基于Modis地表温度的横断山区气温估算及其时空规律分析[J].地理学报,2011,66(7): 917-927 [YAO Yonghui, ZHANG Baiping, HAN Fang.MODIS-based air temperature estimation in the Hengduan Mountains and its spatio-temporal analysis [J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(7):917-927]
[11] 张涛,李宝林,何元庆,等.基于TRMM订正数据的横断山区降水时空分布特征[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(2):260-270 [ZHANG Tao, LI Baolin, HE Yuanqing, et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation based on corrected TRMM data in Hengduan Mountains [J].Journal of natural resources, 2015, 30(2):260-270]
[12] 何大明, 吴绍洪, 彭华,等.纵向岭谷区生态系统变化及西南跨境生态安全研究 [J].地球科学进展,2005, 20(3): 338-344 [HE Daming, WU Shaohong, PENG Hua, et al.A study of ecosystem changes in longitudinal range-gorge region and transboundary eco-security in southwestern China [J].Advance in Earth Sciences, 2005, 20(3): 338-344]
[13] 李吉均, 苏珍.横断山冰川[M].北京:科学出版社, 1996 [LI Jijun, SU Zhen.Glaciers of Hengduan Mountains [M].Beijing: Science Press, 1996.]
[14] YUE Sheng, PILON P, CAVADIAS G.Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearmans tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series [J].Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 259(1): 254-271
[15] WANG Xuan, LIANG Peiyu, LI Chunhui, et al.Analysis of regional temperature variation characteristics in the Lancang River Basin in southwestern China [J].Quaternary International, 2014, 333(2): 198-206
[16] WANG Shijin, JIAO Shitai, XIN Huijuan.Spatio-temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Sichuan Province, Southwestern China, 1960-2009 Significantly decreasing precipitation [J].Quaternary International.2013, 286(5): 103-115
[17] DONG Danhong, HUANG Gang, QU Xia, et al.Temperature trend-altitude relationship in China during 1963-2012 [J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2014, 122(9):285-294.DOI: 10.1007/s00704-014-1286-9
[18] FAN Zexin, BRAUNING A, THOMAS A, et al.Spatial and temporal temperature trends on the Yunnan Plateau(Southwest China)during 1961-2004 [J].International Journal of Climatology, 2011, 31(1): 2078-2090
[19] 聂宁,张万昌,邓财.雅鲁藏布江流域1978-2009年气候时空变化及未来趋势研究[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(1): 64-71 [NIE Ning, ZHANG Wanchang, DENG Cai.Spatial and temporal climate variations from 1978 to 2009 and their trend projection over the Yarlung Zangbo River basin [J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2012, 34(1): 64-71]
[20] YAN Libin, LIU Xiaodong.Has climatic warming over the Tibetan Plateau paused or continued in recent years [J].Journal of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 1(1): 13-28
[21] ZENG Wei, YU Zhen, WU Shihu, et al.Changes in annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation events and their link with elevation in Sichuan province, China [J].International Journal of Climatology, 2016, 36(5): 2303-2322
[22] WU Feifei, WANG Xuan, CAI Yanpeng, et al.Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin [J].Quaternary International, 2013, 392(1): 1-10
[23] 齐东梅,周长艳,李跃清,等.西南区域气候变化原因分析[J].高原山地气象研究,2012, 32(1): 35-42 [QI Dongmei, ZHOU Changyan, LI Yueqing, et al.Cause Analysis of Climate Changes in Southwest China [J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2012, 32(1): 35-42]
[24] 琚建华,任菊章,吕俊梅.北极涛动年代际变化对东亚北部冬季气温增暖的影响[J].高原气象,2004,23(4): 429-434 [JU Jianhua, REN Juzhang, LV Junmei.Effect on interdecadal variation of Arctic Oscillation on temperature increasing in north of East of Asian winter [J].Plateau Meteorology, 2004, 23(4): 429-434]
[25] FAN Ke, WANG Huijun.Antarctic oscillation and the dust weather frequency in North China [J].Geophysical Research Letter, 2004, 31(10):399-420.DOI:1029/2004G1109465
[26] 龚道溢,何学兆.西太平洋副热带高压的年代际变化及其气候影响[J].地理学报,2002,57(2): 185-193 [GONG Daoyi, HE Xuezhao.Interdecadal change in Western Pacific Subtropical High and climatic effect [J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002,57(2):185-193]
[27] 周长艳,蒋兴文,李跃清,等.高原东部及邻近地区空中水汽资源的气候变化特征[J].高原气象,2009,28(1): 55-63 [ZHOU Changyan, JIANG Xingwen, LI Yueqing, et al.Features of climate change of water vapor resource over eastern region of the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings [J].Plateau Meteorology, 2009, 28(1): 55-63]
[28] 徐栋夫, 李栋梁, 王慧.我国西南地区秋季干湿分类及主要类型异常年环流特征分析[J].大气科学,2014,38(2): 373-385 [XU Dongfu, LI Dongliang, WANG Hui.Autumn dry-wet conditions and main types of atmospheric circulation in anomalous years in Southwest China [J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38(2): 373-385]
[29] 谭晶,王彰贵,黄荣辉,等.云南雨季降水异常的热带海温和大气环流异常分析[J].热带海洋学报,2015,34(2): 15-23[TAN Jing, WANG Zhanggui, HUANG Ronghui, et al.Analysis of tropical sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation anomalies and their relationship with abnormal precipitation in Yunnan during rainy season [J].Journal of Tropical Oceanography, 2015, 34(2): 15-23]
[30] 石广玉,王喜红,张立盛,等.人类活动对气候影响的研究Ⅱ.对东亚和中国气候变化的影响[J].气候与环境研究,2002,7(2): 255-266 [SHI Guangyu, WANG Xihong, ZHANG Lisheng, et al.Impact of human activities on climate Ⅱ.Impact on climate variability over East Asia and China [J].Climate and Environmental Research, 2002, 7(2): 255-266]
[31] LI Xiaowen,ZHOU Xiuji,LI Weiliang,et al.The cooling of Sichuan province in recent 40 years and its probable mechanisms [J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 1995, 9(1):57-68
[32] YAO Junqiang, YANG Qing, MAO Weiyi, et al.Precipitation trend-Elevation relationship in arid regions of the China [J].Global and Planetary Change, 2016, 143(5):1-9
[33] CHRISTOPH Schär, CHRISTOPH Frei, DANIEL Lüthi, et al.Surrogate climate-change scenarios for regional climate models [J].Geophysical Research Letters, 1996, 23(6):669-672
[34] 何惠.中国水文站网[J].水科学进展,2010,21(4): 460-465 [HE Hui.China gauging station network [J].Advance in water science, 2010, 21(4): 460-465]

相似文献/References:

[1]郑度.喜马拉雅山区与横断山区自然条件对比[J].山地学报,1988,(03):137.
[2]吕荣森.横断山区干旱河谷落叶果树资源及其开发[J].山地学报,1988,(04):219.
[3]潘裕生.横断山区地质构造分区[J].山地学报,1989,(01):3.
[4]李炳元.横断山区地貌区划[J].山地学报,1989,(01):13.
[5]张谊光.横断山区气候区划[J].山地学报,1989,(01):21.
[6]熊怡,李秀云,王玉枝,等.横断山区水文区划[J].山地学报,1989,(01):29.
[7]余有德,刘伦辉,张建华.横断山区植被分区[J].山地学报,1989,(01):47.
[8]杨勤业,郑度.横断山区综合自然区划纲要[J].山地学报,1989,(01):56.
[9]文传甲.横断山区地形对水热条件的影响[J].山地学报,1989,(01):65.
[10]刘伦辉.横断山区干旱河谷植被类型[J].山地学报,1989,(03):175.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2017-01-14; 改回日期(Accepted date):2017-03-30
基金项目(Foundation item):国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2015CB452701); 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室团队重点课题(2016ZY03)资助。 [National Key Basic Research Development Program of China(973 Program)(2015CB452701); Team Key Study of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research(2016ZY03).]
作者简介(Biography):徐飞(1989- ),男,江西吉安人,博士,主要从事流域水循环模拟研究。[XU Fei(1989- ), male, born in Ji'an, Jiangxi, Ph.D.candidate, research on water cycle simulation.] E-mail:pinghuyu@outlook.com
*通讯作者(Corresponding author):贾仰文(1965- ),男,山东成武人,教授级高工,主要从事流域水循环模拟研究。[JIA Yangwen(1965- ), male, born in Chengwu, Shandong, professor level senior engineer, research on water cycle simulation.] E-mail: jiayw@iwhr.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-03-30