[1]薛 贝,张红旗*,刘长星,等.贵州六盘水市土地利用动态模拟研究[J].山地学报,2018,(01):132-142.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000309]
　XUE Bei,ZHANG Hongqi*,LIU Changxing,et al.Land Use Dynamic Simulation on Typical Karst Region: A Case Study of Liupanshui[J].Mountain Research,2018,(01):132-142.[doi:10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000309]
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贵州六盘水市土地利用动态模拟研究()
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《山地学报》[ISSN:1008-2186/CN:51-1516]

卷:
期数:
2018年01期
页码:
132-142
栏目:
山区发展
出版日期:
2018-01-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Land Use Dynamic Simulation on Typical Karst Region: A Case Study of Liupanshui
文章编号:
1008-2786-(2018)1-122-11
作者:
薛 贝1; 2 ; 张红旗2*; 刘长星1; 许尔琪2; 蔺小虎1
1.西安科技大学 测绘科学与技术学院 西安 710054; 2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室 北京 100101
Author(s):
XUE Bei1; 2;  ZHANG Hongqi2*;  LIU Changxing1;  XU Erqi2;  LIN Xiaohu1
1.College of Geomatics, Xi`an University of Science and Technology, Xi'an 710054,China; 2.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10010
关键词:
土地利用;  logistic回归;  Markov模型;  DLS模型;  喀斯特
Keywords:
land use;  logistic regression;  Markov model;  DLS model;  karst
分类号:
F301.24
DOI:
10.16089/j.cnki.1008-2786.000309
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
受经济快速发展和石漠化日益严重的影响,喀斯特区域土地利用发生了显著的变化。为探究喀斯特区域未来土地利用动态变化及空间分布,本文选取喀斯特土地退化和石漠化严重的贵州省六盘水市为研究对象,基于该区域1990年、2000年和2010年三期土地利用现状数据,借助ARCGIS和SPSS18.0软件分析了研究区土地利用动态变化和各驱动因素对土地利用变化的影响机制,结合Markov模型和DLS模型模拟了该区域2030年在自然增长、土地优化、经济发展和生态保护四种不同情景下的土地利用空间分布。结果表明:(1)2000年以后,人类对土地资源的开发利用强度和速率明显增大,对土地利用变化的影响程度也迅速增加,主要表现在林地、建设用地和水域面积大幅度增加和耕地面积减少。(2)以2000-2010年的土地利用现状数据为基础,利用Markov模型预测未来不同情景下的土地利用需求数据,然后输入DLS模型得到不同情景下土地利用空间格局变化,结果显示:林地和建设用地面积有不同幅度的增加,主要归因于耕地和草地面积的减小,这将是未来该区域土地利用变化的趋势。(3)验证Logistic回归精度的ROC曲线面积值均大于0.7,Kappa值达96.1%,说明模型对于研究区具有良好的适用性,为该区域后期土地资源的合理分配和更好的发展规划提供了一定的参考。
Abstract:
With the rapid development of economy and the influence of rocky desertification, the land use has changed significantly in Karst area.In order to explore the dynamic changes and spatial distribution of land use in the Karst region in the future, this paper took Karst area of Liupanshui city in Guizhou Province for example, where the land degradation and rocky desertification is seriously.The ARCGIS and SPSS18.0 were used to analyze the regional land use change characteristics and the difference of driving factors, then combined Markov model and DLS model, simulated the spatial distribution of land use from natural growth, land optimization, economic development and ecological protection of the study area in 2030 based on land use data in 1990, 2000 and 2010.It is concluded that:(1)the intensity and rate of the human exploitation and utilization of land resources had increased markedly, and the degree of influence on land use changes had also increased rapidly since 2000, mainly in the substantial increase of woodland, construction land,water area and the reduction of cultivated land area;(2)Markov model was used to predict the land use demand under different scenarios, then land use demand data was put into DLS model to get the change of land use spatial pattern from 2000 to 2010.The result showed that forest and construction land increased in different extent, which were mainly from the reduction of arable and grassland area.It would be the trend of land use change of the region in the future;(3)the area value of ROC curves verified by logistic regression accuracy, which were all more than 0.7, and the Kappa value was up to 96.1%.It indicated that the model had good applicability for the study area, and could provide some references for the rational distribution of land resources and better development planning in the later period of the region.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期(Received date):2016-10-13; 改回日期(Accepted date):2017-03-30
基金项目(Foundation item):国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划):土地空间异质性及其资源生态效应(2015CB452702)。 [National Key Basic Research and Development Program(973 Program): The Ecological Effect of Land Spatial Heterogeneity and Its Resources(2015CB452702)]
作者简介(Biography):薛贝(1991-),女,陕西蓝田人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为GIS与土地利用变化。[Xue Bei(1991-), female, born in lantian, Shaanxi province, M.Sc.candidate, research on GIS and land use changes] E-mail: xuebei123 @126.com
*通讯作者(Corresponding author):张红旗(1963-),男,副研究员,主要从事土地评价、土地利用及区域农业发展研究。[Zhang Hongqi, male, associate professor, research on land evaluation, land use and the development of regional agriculture] E-mail: zhanghq@igsnrr.ac.cn.
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-01-30