新疆天山北坡日照时数变化特征——以玛纳斯-石河子-沙湾线为例-《山地学报》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Variation of Sunshine Hour in the Nnorth Slpoe of Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang——A Case Study of ManasiShiheziShawan

作者:: 禹朴家;徐海量;张青青;侯亮;安红燕;龚君君;; 1中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011；
2中国科学院研究生院，北京 100049；
3 乌鲁木齐市林业局，新疆乌鲁木齐 8300543； 4 新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院，新疆乌鲁木齐 830054

Author(s):: YU Pujia ; XU Hailiang; ZHANG Qingqing; HOU Liang; AN Hongyan; GONG Junjun; 1.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Science, Urumqi 83001, China；
2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
3.Urumqi Municipal Forestry Bureau,Urumqi 8300543,China;
4. Geography Science and Tourism Department of Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China

Keywords:: sunshine hour; change trend; wavelet analysis; grey forecasting; northern of Tianshan Mountains

摘要:: 运用线性趋势估计、距平与累积距平、滑动t检验、小波分析、灰色预测等方法,对天山北坡中部日照时数的变化趋势、周期特征、突变特征及未来趋势进行了分析。结果表明:1.近47年来,天山北坡一线日照时数呈减少的趋势,其变化倾向率为21.6 h/(10 a),相关系数为0.26。累积距平曲线的变化趋势显示,年日照时数以1986年为转折点,前期偏多,后期偏少。2.年日照时数在1986年发生了由多到少的突变,其突变类型比较复杂,是均值突变和转折突变两种突变类型的组合。3.日照时数在近47 a的时间序列中存在8 a和19 a的周期。在8 a的时间尺度上,年日数序列经历了7个偏多期和6个偏少期;在19 a的时间尺...

Abstract:: The trend，periods and abrupt change of annual sunshine hour were analyzed in the northern zone of Tianshan Mountains with methods of line analyze, annual anomalies, abrupt t test,wavelet analyze and grey forecasting. The results indicate that: the annual sunshine hour trend is decreased in the northern zone of Tianshan Mountains during 47 years. The average trend is 21.6 h/(10 years) and the correlation coefficient is 0.26, which passed the significance test at 0.10 level. The trend of annual anomalies show that the annual sunshine hour changes in 1986, which are the high frequency period before 1986 and latent period after 1986. The annual sunshine hour changes form many to few. The change type is complex, which include the mean change and the transition change. There is an obvious periodic of 8 and 19 years for the annual sunshine hour series during 47 years in the northern zone of Tianshan Mountains. At the scale of 8 years, there are 7 high frequency periods and 6 latent periods for the annual sunshine hour series; At the scale of 19 years, there are 2 high frequency periods and 2 latent periods for the annual sunshine hour series; The predicted amount of sunshine hours from the established grey dynamic model indicates that the dependability of the established grey dynamic model is very high and the predict result is nicety. The annual sunshine hour is reach the 2 970.8 hours in 2010, which is top during the recent 10 years.